“clearly out of the Great Recession”

To hear “the nation is clearly out of the Great Recession of 2008/2009”  made the BIA/OC Development Conference on March 26th  a welcomed glimmer of positive news. 

Professor Kerry Vandell, the Director of  UCI’s Center for Real Estate confidently shared this positive along with: the stabilization of US employment; rising consumer confidence; and increases in retail sales. And then like most recent economic presentations, we heard about: the high deficit;  wealth & income erosionconstrained credit; and the worries of:  inflation, stagnation and massive federal government intervention.  Vandell followed this with how especially dysfunctional California is. But don’t worry  – we  “have the most diverse, creative, entrepreneurial, climate-friendly, beautiful environment anywhere.”  Actually – I always find that comforting.

 Some interesting notes on land…Emile Haddad’s Five Point team has quite a bit.  Mike Maples of Trumark  reported a pipeline of 900+ lots in CA and came off as someone you’d want to have a drink with. Jason Perrin of Greencrossing approximates Summer 2009 as the bottom of the SoCal land market. (Basically, it seems that if you are still waiting for the land “deal of the century”, the train left the station without you last year.) That said, Perrin definitely feels there are significant opportunities ahead – an easy statement for a $60M land bank fund.

So do I feel optimistic for 2010? Cautiously yes. Afterall, the Great Recession is over and employment is finally stabilizing.

Advertisements

2 thoughts on ““clearly out of the Great Recession”

  1. I think the second quote in the cartoon is especially poignant; are we really out of this Great Recession – maybe, maybe not but once again we are headed in the right direction even if the fundamental light at the end of the tunnel turns out to be other than what is wished for. Whether your perspective is that of a homeowner, student businessperson, or Wall Street fund manager we are all prone to the same herd mentality that now has us believing once again in the future and the light at the end of the tunnel. Sometimes those that brake away from the herd early get slaughtered sometimes they get rewarded beyond all reasonableness like those astute enough to realize the bottom a year ago and then reacted accordingly – yes the Great Recession is over, for now.

    W42

  2. Thanks for the great comment and glad to hear you are also a mild “Recession is over” vote.

    Now I think everyone who bought land a year ago will be ecstatic to hear that their rewards will be “beyond all reasonableness”. I wish I was one of them. -H

thoughts...

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s